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Division races heat up as NFL post-season nears
The Advocate
With the NFL playoffs on the horizon, here is a prediction about how the final month of the season will play out, division by division.
NFC South: After a spectacular win Monday night against the New England Patriots, the New Orleans Saints appear to be the real deal. Naysayers may point to the fact that the Saints were at home with a supercharged crowd, but when the playoffs come around, home is exactly where they’ll be playing anyhow, and they’ll be nigh impossible to defeat. Why are they so strong this year? Their offensive line. For years, yours truly has been opining that offensive ineptitude all starts at the offensive line – but this year the Saints’ line has been fabulous. Their run blocking is rated number one on FootballOutsiders.com, and their pass protection is rated fifth. Saint’s QB Drew Brees was hardly touched by the Pats until the fourth quarter, when the game was pretty much decided. The Saints take the number one seed.
NFC North: The almost-as-impressive Minnesota Vikings appear to be headed in a similar direction. For the first time in almost two decades, the NFC has two powerhouse teams headed for a near-certain conference championship collision. Despite being touted as having one of the better offensive lines in the league, the Vikes have had the second highest number of their runs stuffed in the backfield – nearly one-fourth of them. Right now, they’re winning because of defense and because their pass protection appears to have improved over last year. They’ll still take the number two seed, but their prospects for the playoffs, when tougher defenses come to play, might be worse than one would think. The Green Bay Packers will likely make it as a wild-card contender, mostly due to their fairly easy remaining schedule. They play Pittsburgh, Arizona and Baltimore, but they’ll only need to win one of those because they’ll defeat Chicago and Seattle handily. Their O-line play has improved enough to make their offense a factor in the remaining weeks.
NFC East: No wonder the Dallas Cowboys collapse every December – their remaining schedule is tougher by far than any other NFL playoff contender. Their opponents have a win percentage of 63 percent, and it starts this week when they travel to New York to play the Giants. This is a must-win game for the Giants, and if they don’t pull it off, count them out of the playoff race. The Philadelphia Eagles also play a tough schedule, and the division title will likely come down to their week 17 game at Dallas. For the fourth year in a row, these two teams will end their season playing each other, and this should be the third year out of four that the game will have playoff implications. Either way, both of these teams make the playoffs. The Cowboys have the second highest-rated offensive line while rushing the ball, but only 19th when dropping back to pass. Dallas coaches: Run the ball if you want to avoid another December collapse!
NFC West: The Arizona Cardinals win this division. 11-5 isn’t out of the question, but QB Kurt Warner has to be healthy. 10-6 or 9-7 is more likely. The rest of this division is absolute filth and not worth mentioning.
AFC South: Teams that don’t run the ball well aren’t supposed to have winning squads, but the Indianapolis Colts have a player that nullifies this: QB Peyton Manning. The team is winning close games, and their defense is second best in points-against. Their serious lack of a running threat will catch up to them in the playoffs (as will Manning’s tendency to choke when postseason pressure mounts), and their defense, which is susceptible to the run, will likely be gouged by any strong AFC rushing team. The gouging will begin this weekend, as the red-hot Tennessee Titans come to town with five-straight Vince Young-orchestrated victories. As impressive as they’ve been, it will be an impossible feat to win 10 straight and earn a playoff berth. The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom looked like potential wild-card teams three weeks ago, have fallen from grace and likely both miss out on the playoffs.
AFC North: At the end of October, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 5-2 and rolling. Now, they’re 1-3 in their last four games. The Baltimore Ravens, preseason favorites to win the division and make it deep in the playoffs, are now in the same boat at 6-5. Alas, the down-and-out Cincinnati Bengals hold the division lead at 8-3. This division, long nicknamed the “black and blue division,” has been beaten sideways by the Bengals, whose 6-0 division record is their best ever. They aren’t winning big, they aren’t flashy, but they’re a tough, bruising team whose quarterback, Carson Palmer, has resurrected his career to make this team a seriously dangerous, yet entirely under-the-radar, team. The Bengals are allowing the fourth-fewest points per drive (1.32), yards per drive (25.85), and touchdowns per drive (.137). However, both the Steelers and the Ravens face only two teams with a winning record for the remainder of the season, with one of those games being played against each other. I think both teams get to 10-6, but only one makes it in.
AFC East: Maybe now people will understand why Bill Belichick went for it on fourth-and-2 against the Colts. The New England Patriots defense has suffered the tortures of the damned two of the last three weeks, facing Manning and Brees, with their more recent game against the Saints being one of the worst a Bill Belichick-coached defense has ever surrendered. Brees had a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. Even though they still have QB Tom Brady, it will be tough for him to orchestrate any big comebacks if their defense keeps allowing points the way they have. The rest of this division is not a threat.
AFC West: Last season, the Denver Broncos were 8-5, and had an inside track to the division title. I wrote in a column, “The Denver Broncos had the chance to put a stranglehold on the division, and are now begging the San Diego Chargers to take it right from them. I fully expect the Chargers to oblige.” Oblige the Chargers did, and they beat out Denver (despite starting 3-5) in the final game of the season to win the division. This year, after Denver had beaten San Diego in the Chargers’ stadium to go to 5-0, I said to myself of the 2-3 Chargers, “I’ll bet Denver finds a way to give the division away to San Diego.” Six straight wins later, San Diego appears poised to challenge Cincinnati for the number two seed. Their rushing game has improved vastly, and made them a more complete team. Denver is tough to get a handle on, because they have a talented defense, and play only two more tough teams the rest of the way, so getting to 10-6 shouldn’t be a problem. It should be just enough to sneak in with tie-breakers over Baltimore.
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