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Going with favorites: Why the top will stay at the top of the NFC and AFC Championships
The Advocate
Why the Indianapolis Colts will win the AFC: This is perhaps the simplest game in all of the postseason to determine — on paper. The New York Jets, whom I’ve picked against each of the last two weeks, have surprised many people on their way to the AFC Championship game, while the Colts locked up the division over a month ago and played their first meaningful game in three weeks against Baltimore in the divisional round, beating them handedly. Several comparisons can be made between Ravens QB Joe Flacco and Jets QB Mark Sanchez, as well as their team’s offensive schemes and their defensive tactics. In essence, the Colts are playing the same type of team they just beat 20-3 last weekend – a grind-it-out, tough-it-out, make-no-mistakes football team.
Last weekend, expecting the Ravens to run the ball (as they did 52 times the week before against New England), the Colts came out and played eight defenders in the box for the first drive. This prompted the Ravens to pass the ball, and they had mild success, getting a field goal out of their first drive. But for the remainder of the game, the Colts defense played their standard 4-3 cover 2 and nickel, mixing in some new blitzes that clearly caught Baltimore off guard. The Ravens, rather than adjust and run the ball, seemed content to try and pass their way to a victory. Back in October, I scorched this team for going too pass-wacky, and it did not pay off. In fact, Baltimore had only two rushing first downs for the entire game, or one less than Indianapolis did, who finished the year last in the league in rushing.
Offensively, the Colts passed short, preferring timing routes to dangerous deep throws. While Colts QB Peyton Manning hit on a few intermediate throws, he passed for only a 5.3-yard average, or 2.5 yards short of his season average. When Baltimore blitzed, all Manning had to do was hit his hot routes, which were mostly slants, quick cuts, curls and quick outs. This was easy to do because Baltimore’s corners did not play press coverage, which absolutely must be done when blitzing, particularly on third downs.
Why do I mention all of this? Because New York is a mirror image of Baltimore, with small differences. First, they play press coverage on receivers when blitzing. Second, their offensive coordinator does not abandon the run when it doesn’t work early. Otherwise, they are very similar, except the Jets’ defense is much better thanks to cornerback play. New York does have the luck factor on their side, however; thanks to opposing kickers, they’re still in the playoffs. Kickers have gone 0/5 against New York, including three misses last weekend by San Diego that would have put them on ice. Is luck enough? No. While I would love to see the Jets knock the whiny Manning out of the playoffs, I don’t see it happening. 16-10, Colts.
Why the New Orleans Saints will win the NFC: This has the potential of being the best game of the season. Rare is the moment in the NFL when number one and number two seeds face each other in the biggest game for each conference, and it should be greatly enjoyed when these anomalies occur. I’m treating this game as if it were the Super Bowl, because the NFC is just that much stronger than the AFC this year. These two teams are so evenly matched I don’t even know where to begin. I guess I’ll start with each team’s strengths.
For Minnesota, it’s their offensive and defensive lines. QB Brett Favre was barely touched last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys’ fierce pass-rush, and he hit on big throws all day. The Vikings’ running game isn’t what it once was, and they face a challenge in beating Saints DT Sedrick Ellis at the point of attack. However, if Ellis can be beaten, the Saints are susceptible to long gains like the opening play of last weekend’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.
The last thing the Saints want to see is RB Adrian Peterson running free in the open field. Defensively, the Vikings were in the face of Cowboys QB Tony Romo all day last weekend, but the guy everyone expected to apply most of the pressure, DE Jared Allen, didn’t; the pressure instead came from DE Ray Edwards, who sacked Romo three times. Allen still had a marvelous game, but it wasn’t the type of game one might expect from him against a backup tackle for most of the game.
The good news for the Saints is that Edwards is questionable for the game. If he can’t go, that will likely force the Vikings to blitz more to keep pressure in QB Drew Brees’ face. The Saints offensive line, which was outstanding for much of the year, had all kinds of trouble against Dallas when they suffered their first loss of the season. The Cowboys top two pass rushers were the primary reason the Saints were held to only 17 points in that game, and the Vikings have to be looking at that as the best way to beat them. The Saints have all sorts of weapons on offense, and have a great offensive planner in coach Sean Payton, who runs the most innovative and creative offense in the league. This will create problems for the Vikings if Brees has time to capitalize on Minnesota’s shaky secondary.
While I think the team that runs the ball best wins the game (for two pass-first teams, who would really expect a balanced offense?), the real wild-card is Saints safety Darren Sharper. Sharper played for Green Bay for much of Favre’s career there and will do all he can to bait him into making mistakes. We’ve only seen one patented Brett Favre implosion game this year (when normally he averages three or four per season) and that was against Arizona in week 13. If Favre, who will face constant blitzing from the Saints, makes one or two errant throws, New Orleans will be on their way to victory. 31-27, Saints.
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