REPUBLICANS TO ABUSE CENSUS EXERCISE

Though the U.S. Census usually engenders a wide array of mildly negative responses – groans, sighs, teeth-gnashing, a general attitude of righteous indignation toward the inefficiencies of modern bureaucracy – genuine fear is one that rarely makes it to that list.

But this may soon change for millions of people in America, in the next once-every-decade exercise. Per a U.S. Department of Justice request, the federal Census Bureau is planning on including the question, “Is this person a citizen of the United States?” in the upcoming 2020 Census.

At first glance, it seems a pretty straightforward addition. According to the Constitution, “the actual Enumeration [of the actual persons in the several states] shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.” The census performs several different functions, but its main purpose is to provide data so the U.S. House of Representatives can ensure that its Representative-to-constituent ratio is fairly maintained.

Many would argue that non-citizens living in America shouldn’t count towards the voting population of a state. It stands to reason that if, for example, 50 percent of the population of a given voting (congressional) district are actually French students here on educational visas, they shouldn’t be counted when divvying up political districts to ensure governmental representation. They’re already being represented by the French government, after all.

But given the longstanding conservative trend toward anti-immigration rhetoric; the current administration’s repeated defamation of immigrant communities; the Trump voter base’s outspoken views on immigration; and ICE’s renewed vigor in enforcing the letter of the law with respect to arresting, detaining and deporting undocumented persons, this addition to the census probably doesn’t have French students in mind.

Now, regardless of your stance on immigration, it’s hard to know how to proceed on illegal immigration from a policy standpoint without hard data on the exact number of undocumented persons in the country. As most people who are eligible for deportation aren’t exactly lining up to inform government officials, most of the data the U.S. has collected on illegal immigration consists of estimates – guesswork, at best.

Yet, if getting an accurate headcount of undocumented Americans is an end goal of the census, this is a pretty poor way to go about it.

While filling out a census form is a relatively minor task for most people, for someone who’s worried about being deported to begin with, the stakes are much higher. It’s hard to imagine someone at risk of deportation knowingly provide their address, the names of their family members and their citizenship status (or lack thereof) to a federal agency under a president whose campaign kickoff speech included the lines “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best… they’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists.”

Indeed, lying on a census form is nominally a crime, but it’s a comparatively minor one, resulting in a $100-$500 fine, as opposed to jail time – assuming the culprit gets found out, tried and convicted. As such, one likely outcome of this census addition will be a significant degree of under-reporting on the 2020 census among undocumented households.

If the whole idea of adding this is to get a more accurate picture of the number of undocumented persons in America, then, it would seem to render the whole exercise rather pointless.

Except… except that most immigrant communities, particularly undocumented ones, vote almost overwhelmingly blue.

Since the lines for voting districts are drawn based on the census and stay in place for 10 years, and assuming numerous districts which have voted reliably Democrat in the past are going to show large drops in population if undocumented individuals dodge the census, Republican lawmakers will gain a significant edge in the House for the next decade.

Additionally, this move sends a message to Trump’s anti-immigrant base that he’s stepping up to the plate and getting tough on immigration.

Democratic-leaning states (particularly those with large immigrant communities) aren’t going down without a fight, however. The attorneys general of several states, such as California, New York and Oregon, are filing a civil action lawsuit naming the federal Department of Commerce, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, and the Census Bureau as defendants.

The nation’s judicial system, then, will play a crucial role in helping shape how the federal legislative branch will function through the 2020s. Our ongoing experiment with democracy – and civics lesson – continues.

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