HOW REAL IS VOTER FRAUD?

For the last four years, candidate and now, President, Donald Trump has been claiming that the American election process is fraudulent and rigged. He has also declined to agree to a peaceful transition of power on numerous occasions, when asked. Over the last several months, his claims of ballot fraud have escalated.

Why would the Commander in Chief cast doubt about our election process when free and fair elections are the cornerstone of our democracy? And when those who closely monitor the process insist those fears are unfounded?

Christopher Krebs, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency that was signed into existence in November 2018 by Trump himself, has stated, “I have confidence that your vote is secure, that state and local election officials across this country are working day in and day out, 24/7, that the 2020 election is as secure as possible.” He also warned, “Be prepared for efforts that call into question the legitimacy of the election.”

The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law is a nonpartisan public policy and law institute that focuses on democracy and justice’s fundamental issues. Observers there state, “Extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent, and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators. The same is true for mail ballots, which are secure and essential to holding a safe election amid the coronavirus pandemic.”

In November 2016, when Trump lost the nationwide popular vote to Hillary Clinton by close to three million votes, he declared three million votes were cast illegally. The Trump-appointed Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity later found no evidence of widespread voter fraud, however.

None of this has stopped the president’s repeated claims of a flawed voting system.

At a campaign rally on Aug. 17 of this year, Trump asserted, “The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged.” Experts from opposite sides of the partisan divide continue to dismiss that threat, meantime.

According to an Massachusetts Institute of Technology study:

“Vote fraud in the United States is exceedingly rare, with mailed ballots and otherwise. Over the past 20 years, about 250 million votes have been cast by a mail ballot nationally. The Heritage Foundation maintains an online database of election fraud cases in the United States and reports that there have been just over 1,200 cases of vote fraud of all forms, resulting in 1,100 criminal convictions over the past 20 years. Of these, 204 involved the fraudulent use of absentee ballots; 143 resulted in criminal convictions.

“One hundred forty-three cases of fraud using mailed ballots over the course of 20 years comes out to seven to eight cases per year, nationally. It also means that across the 50 states, there has been an average of three cases per state over the 20-year span. That is just one case per state every six or seven years.

“We are talking about an occurrence that translates to about 0.00006 percent of total votes cast.”

https://shass.mit.edu/news/news-2020-pandemic-voting-mail-safe-honest-and-fair-stewart

FBI Director Christopher Wray, who was appointed by Trump, stated at a press conference earlier this month, “We’ve been working for years as a community to build resilience in our election infrastructure – and today that infrastructure remains resilient. You should be confident that your vote counts. Early, unverified claims to the contrary should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism.”

https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-director-christopher-wrays-remarks-atpress-conference-on-election-security

While numerous studies have shown no basis for allegations that substantial voter fraud occurs in American elections, whether conducted primarily by mail or otherwise, why is the President of the United States continuing to call the election “rigged” if he loses? Trump’s goal is becoming clear: By undermining the elections’ integrity, he positions himself to call into question the election’s validity. And due to the unique challenges 2020 has posed, there are even more targets for him.

Due to safety concerns surrounding COVID-19, there is a huge increase in mail-in ballots this election year. In some states, laws require that mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. Because these states will need additional time to count all the votes, a definitive winner of the presidential race will not be likely be announced on Nov. 3.

This is where things get even more interesting.

A scathing report in The Atlantic magazine says that sources in the Republican Party at the local and national levels confirm that “the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors” in so-called “red” (Republican-leaning) battleground states. In 2000, the Supreme Court affirmed that a state “can take back the power to appoint electors,” in the Bush vs. Gore case that decided that contested race.

The Atlantic article cites evidence that should Biden defeat Trump, the existence of rampant fraud will be alleged. In battleground states where the Republicans have a majority, legislators will then be asked to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead choose electors loyal to the GOP.

“It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution,” the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party is quoted as saying, also conceding that he has discussed appointing loyal electors with the Trump campaign.

The likelihood that Trump will concede to Biden, should Biden win the tabulated vote count, is seemingly less likely every day. Just like in 2000, America could be looking at another bitter, prolonged resolution.

Clete Willems, a former deputy director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC reporters in September there’s been a “real shift” in election dynamics that may raise the risk of a disputed U.S. presidential election outcome.

“So, I think this is going to be an incredibly tight race,” Willems said. “And I do think, unfortunately, we may not have an outcome immediately, probably going to be litigation that follows and I just hope that we can get this resolved in relative short order so there isn’t uncertainty come January.

“I really do think that this is something we’re going to have to deal with.”