HAVE THE OSCARS LOST THEIR MAGIC TOUCH?

It’s October, and it might feel like this year’s Academy Awards are still a world away, but in reality, this tedious yearly ceremony is only a little over four months from now. To the average person, the Academy Awards are of little interest, aside from providing an opportunity to gloat when your favorite movie wins.

Nonetheless, the Oscars are a big deal for the industry as a whole, and so it’s worth speculating who the 2020 nominees might be.

The nomination process for Best Picture, as well as all the other categories, is as vague and corrupt as any other politicized, multi-billion-dollar business. However, there is still a clear pattern in the way films and their creators are chosen and deemed worthy of consideration. The typical “Oscar-bait” predictors have changed over the years somewhat, though much has stayed the same.

Biopics have always done well in the Best Picture category; so have historical films and hit box office dramas. Divisive art films from notable directors are also frequently nominated, as well as movies centered around group or individual suffrage. Examples usually concern slavery, mental illness, addiction, the handicapped, war, the LGBTQ community, or any other easily dramatized situation of personal or group struggle. There also are genres which have historically almost never been chosen: Sci-fi, horror, animation, and comic book movies seem to be disregarded almost on principle, though that tradition seems to be changing somewhat.

So, with all of this to consider, what do the predictions look like so far? 

According to GoldDerby.com, a site which compiles statistics to predict the odds of nomination for each big category, Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” is charted at No. 1 for the chance to win, with Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman” at No. 2.

Other notable films in the top ten include “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi’s World War II Hitler comedy; “Ford v Ferrari,” a film about U.S. automotive designer Carroll Shelby and British race car driver Ken Miles; “A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood,” the Tom Hanks/Mr. Rogers biopic; “Marriage Story,” starring Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, who play a couple going through divorce; “Little Women,” a period drama about four sisters growing up in post-Civil War America, and “1917,” a World War I action drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch.

Some observers may have expected “Joker” or “Avengers: End Game” to appear somewhere on the list, seeing as “Black Panther” made the Best Picture nominations cut last year. But the 2020 predictions are looking to be more of a return to form this time around, made evident by the large majority of clear Oscar bait titles dominating the oddsmakers favorites. (Although, Joaquin Phoenix is currently trending at No. 2 in the predictions for Best Actor, furthering the trend of comic book movies inching their way toward legitimacy in the eyes of the Academy.) 

The movie year is not quite over yet, though, so the odds are bound to change and perhaps some films may even be kicked out of the top ten.

In the end, the process is all one big, self-congratulatory pat on the back for the big names of the industry, meant to drive buzz and promote sales. Whatever soul the Oscars had was lost a long time ago, and your time is probably better spent looking at the inevitable memes and fail videos that come out of the 92nd Academy Awards show, after it’s over.

In any case, it’s fun to watch the drama unfold along the way.