Political forum dissects the electoral process and clarifies Measure 97

The U.S. electoral process and Oregon’s ballot Measure 97 were two main topics of discussion during a political science forum hosted by MHCC political science instructor Janet Campbell on Wednesday.

Campbell opened the discussion with an explanation about how the Electoral College works to elect the president of the United States. “Each state has a certain number of what are called electors, and it’s just the number of votes that each state gets to vote for the president,” she said.

Each state gets the equivalent votes of their total congressional delegation: their representatives in the U.S. House, plus the two U.S. senators all 50 states have. Each state gets a representative for about every 630,000 people, so large states have more electoral votes.

“So, Oregon gets a whopping seven votes,” said Campbell, comparing that to California’s 55 votes. “Whoever gets the most votes, even if it’s by one, (in a given state) gets all of the electors in that state.”

Given the math, it’s possible a candidate could lose the popular vote (the nationwide majority vote), but still win the presidential election.

Each state’s vote actually sends designated electors as their proxy vote in the formal Electoral College decision, which happens following the November general election.

“When you vote, you’re not actually voting for the president, you’re going to vote for which seven (in Oregon) of those people who will go eventually vote for the president,” said Campbell. “Each party chooses their own (electors) because they want to be sure to have people that are sworn to the party.”

The United States combined has a total of 538 electoral votes that candidates compete for. Whoever gets 270 first wins the presidency.

Campbell also discussed congressional redistricting, and how the political parties – if they control the state legislature – typically draw district lines to make all their party members in the same districts to create “safe voting districts,” where a single party gets the majority of votes. (Redistricting takes place after the U.S. Census every 10 years, to keep up with changing population counts.)

Since the current election is not a typical election, Campbell said, there is no actual guarantee of “safe voting districts” this time.

“This is a weirdo election… so, we don’t know if those districts are going to vote that way,” she said.

Campbell said voter polls reported in the media should be taken “with a grain of salt” because most polls represent the amount of people who usually vote. Since this is a “weirdo election,” many first-time voters are registering, and party members are switching sides, which might skew polling results.

Campbell then transitioned to Oregon’s Measure 97.

The measure keeps Oregon’s existing tax structure for taxing corporations, but any corporation with more than $25 million in annual sales would pay 2.5 percent more. The extra tax money would go toward state spending on healthcare, education, and senior care.

“The key is it doesn’t focus on corporate profits, it focuses on (gross) sales,” said Campbell. “Say you make a billion dollars, but it costs a billion dollars to run your place, you’re still responsible for that 2.5 percent.”

The aim was to tax sales instead of profits because profits can be hidden, Campbell explained. “Corporations do this all the time, they re-invest over here, or pop it (the profit) over here, or do this with it, and it’s not considered profit. The people that wrote this (measure) are, like, ‘There’s no way to get out of a sales tax to corporations,’ and there isn’t. There’s no loophole – sales are sales,” she said.

Many Oregon businesses (Powell’s Books being the main example) could suffer from the tax, however. “They make a whole lot of sales, but their margin of profit is pretty small, so some (similar) businesses will definitely be negatively affected by this measure,” said Campbell.

Large, chain businesses such as Wal-Mart and Target won’t suffer as much, she said. They “operate in a whole variety of different tax systems around the world, and in each state of the United States, and it doesn’t seem to affect their prices,” she said.

As to how much more an Oregon consumer will have to pay if the measure becomes law, it’s hard to figure. “Absolutely nobody knows, so that’s why this measure is so controversial,” said Campbell.

“It kind of gets down to a more philosophical thing. We know it’s going to hurt some businesses that we like,” she said. “In general, it’s (also) going to hit a lot of corporations that people feel should pay their fair share” of taxes. Currently, Oregon’s corporate tax rates are low compared to other states.

Campbell advised voters to consider the measure philosophically, and not be swayed by predictions of how much it will cost consumer because “there’s no way to actually calculate it factually. Absolutely none,” she said.